Mark Pickens

Burried in the Economist’s recent article on “The frontier of finance” was the little number that M-PESA is about to hit 1 million users signed up for its mobile payments service in Kenya. So what: mobile banking is gathering steam. That’s old news.

But lost in all the buzz is the critical role third-party agents serve in the play for millions of low-income clients. A broad range of corner stores, petrol stations, lottery kiosks, post offices and other outlets feature prominently in the system architecture for such success stories as Safaricom’s M-PESA in Kenya, as well as in other countries, such as Globe Telecom’s GCash service in the Philippines.

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Small differences in the wording of a law can translate into a loophole big enough to drive a truck through, or a couple of the world’s largest mobile phone companies. In Kenya, the presence of the word “and” in a definition of banking in the country’s Banking Act gave Vodafone ample space to launch M-PESA, a mobile wallet with most of the functionality of a traditional transactional bank account. M-PESA is nearing 1 million registered users (in a country with less than 3 million bank accounts), but Safaricom, Vodafone’s local affiliate, is not currently regulated by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). Why? M-PESA isn’t banking, at least right now.

In the Philippines, another pioneer, Globe’s GCash mobile wallet, isn’t classified as banking either, but it is regulated by the central bank, unlike M-PESA (for now). What’s going on? Is there cause for concern? While Vodafone operates in a vaccum, the Philippines central bank crafted a special regulatory window that not only gives Globe’s GCash permission to operate, but gives the central bank the authority it needs to see mobile payments is safe for consumers and the financial system. Read the rest of this page »

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced it will develop a regulatory and oversight framework for mobile banking, and made clear its concern over the safety of transactions through mobile phones. 

There is burgeoning demand for mobile banking among users, though this is tempered by concerns about security and lack of awareness. This from industry analyst Sybase 365, who surveyed potential mobile banking customers in the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific regions.

Underlying the worldwide enthusiasm for mobile banking is a trend that has been coined by the survey as ‘nano-economics,’ or a near obsession by consumers with managing their finances to the cent and by the minute. 

But what about customers who are completely unbanked, who want first-time access to financial services? For many of the world’s 2 billion living on USD 2 or less, that means a secure way to save and affordable means to pay and make transfers. Those are typically services associated with transaction fees and unlike with credit, providers will need high volumes to make money off of low margin clients.

Interestingly, though, poor people have the same questions as the comparatively rich people Sybase surveyed: is it safe, and can I find out more? CGAP’s research with WIZZIT, which targets low-income South Africans with a mobile- and debit card-based service, found poor people had lots of questions about WIZZIT’s safety, convenience and affordability. Less than half were familiar with WIZZIT or mobile banking.

But it looks like the trick is getting people to try it. Low-income people who used WIZZIT were enthusiastic about the value. Three out of four said it was closer to their ideal way of doing banking than branches and ATMs, because of affordability, safety and ease of use.

Mobile banking is taking off. Or is it?  The buzz around mobile banking is matched by a recent flurry of product launches. In the US, nine banks rolled out a mobile banking platform to their customers this year. And they’re already late to the game. In Africa, Asia and elsewhere, banks and mobile phone companies have offered mobile payment and banking services for several years. Vodafone’s M-Pesa service has a half million users in just 6 months in Kenya, in a country with just over 3 million people with bank accounts.

Clients might sign up, but will they use mobile banking? Business projections, and a few careers, are likely to live and die on the answer. CGAP’s research in South Africa suggests low-income customers won’t understand the value until they use the service. Once they do, clients can become active users.

But a blizzard of studies in developed markets is clouding the picture with different answers, which has to be somewhat unsatisfying for senior bank and mobile manager deciding on whether to invest in mobile as a channel. Earlier this year, Celent argued 35 percent of online banking households will be using mobile banking by 2010, with new functionalities making mobile banking distinct from other channels.  Meanwhile, a more pessimistic Jupiter Research touts survey results showing only 8% of cell phone users who use online banking services are interested in mobile banking.  The debate in the US frames the same questions managers are asking in emerging markets. So which is it? Consumers will love it, or hate it?

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What do you do when your client is nomadic, lives in an area with no electricity, roads, or GSM coverage, but plenty of bandits?

Two CGAP partners are devising solutions to just such a situation in Kenya. Vodafone and a consortium of PayNet, Kenya Commercial Bank and Sevak Solutions are awardees from the Social Protection Payments Challenge Fund, co-financed by CGAP and FSD Kenya.  The two awardees are developing prototypes to deliver social protection payments to families with orphans and food insecure households in the arid north bordering Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Both have chosen approaches that rely on technology to drop the cost of delivering the grants, while giving beneficiaries and others access to other financial services.

But northern Kenya is a tough environment to do banking. In an area the same size as the UK, there are 3 bank branches. In one district, Kwale, a family of five typically gets by on 300 Kenyan Shillings per day, or under USD 5. Garissa district houses a major refugee camp for Somalis. About the busiest place is Loki, with 100 flights daily for UN and other agencies staging relief aid into Southern Sudan. Why so many flights? Because police have declared the road impossible to protect from bandits, starting 600 km to the south.

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Sci-fi seer William Gibson said “The future is already here: it’s just unevenly distributed.” If that’s true, then the future of mobile is already happening in places like Kenya, the Philippines and South Africa. And two numbers released this month by Wireless Intelligence tell us why mobile payments and banking is much more likely to happen in poor countries than rich ones.

August saw the world’s three billionth mobile phone connection made. The first billion mobile connections took a dozen years, and the second just two and a half years, with 82 percent of new subscribers coming from developing countries. The third billion: just under two years. The growth of mobile is centered squarely in places like Mumbai, not Munich, Lagos, not London.

Meanwhile, ARPU, or average revenue per user, continues its downward trend, sliding another 12 percent globally. This means mobile operators are earning less per customer. The trend is most pronounced in poorer countries. In Africa, blended ARPU has declined by a quarter from 2005, down to 13.9 Euros, compared to the world average of 22.6. ARPUs look even less enticing if you also factor in churn (percentage of customers lost), which increases customer acquisition costs.

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Some pioneers are using technology to deliver financial services to low-income clients, often with business models built around payments. Their success mirrors that of microfinance institutions (MFIs). A 38-country analysis found that 349 MFIs are more profitable on average than the 1799 commercial banks in those same countries.

Nothing attracts competition like success. Most new entrants to branchless banking will be honest, but some might be less-than scrupulous. Consumer protection is already a hot topic in the microfinance industry.

So are there special consumer protection issues with branchless banking, or the delivery of financial services to poor clients using electronic channels and cash-handling agents? Some US utility companies’ tie-ups with agents are already attracting scrutiny and some criticism, and the potential exists for the same thing to happen in developing countries with branchless banking aimed at the poor. Read the rest of this page »

Emergency aid used to be a short-term fix to a grim situation: handouts of food and other needed goods to alleviate the suffering of some of the world’s poorest beset by famine, drought or flood. Now, aid agencies increasingly deliver cash in continual social protection payments which help the poor build safety nets and avoid crises. And a few pioneering thinkers in the aid industry realize that cash + technology can also = infrastructure for financial services. Donors and governments can not only get social payments to the right people, but improve access to finance for entire communities historically off the radar screen of traditional banks.

Aid agencies are wising up to new ways of delivering help. They’ve realized that smaller amounts of aid, spread out over time and in the form of cash, can help poor people build there own safety nets, before a crisis hits. Cash is also much cheaper and more efficient way of delivering aid. Some 65% of America’s US$ 2 billion food aid program is eaten up by red tape and logistical costs, according to a US government report.

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There is m-banking with phones, approaches to banking the poor with point-of-sale terminals, and business models that use phones and cards together. But Russia is pioneering an altogether different approach to opening access to payment services.

More than 120,000 automated payment terminals have been deployed in Russia, mostly in the last two years. Located in public spaces, unmanned terminals like this one below provide 24/7 ability to buy prepaid airtime and other telecom services, pay municipal utilities, rent or taxes, or make a repayment on one of the estimated 20 million consumer loans outstanding.

No bank account is required. You can’t make a deposit or a remittance yet, but the boom in payment terminals should be good news for the 60 million adult Russians who are unbanked but need an affordable, convenient and reliable way to make retail payments. Read the rest of this page »