Today, the CGAP Technology Blog comes to you from the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. The MWC is the world’s biggest business show for all things mobile related. In recent years we’ve noticed how the focus on mobile banking has slowly grown on the agenda – both in the conference itself, as well as for the mobile network operators who comprise the membership of the GSMA.

Just two years ago, mobile money was relegated to a side session of a few hours. This week, there’s two full days of mobile money content – starting with Monday’s panel of the so-called “two billion club” – the handful of mobile operators who combined reach one third of humanity with their cell coverage.

Following the panel and other speakers, including Ignacio Mas (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), CGAP’s own Stephen Rasmussen covers the outlook for mobile banking over the next decade – how a younger world, more internet, crime, and activist governments will affect mobile banking penetration. These four forces will determine how little – or much – mobile banking really takes hold for the 2.7 billion people globally who lack access to basic banking services today. His talk is based on the scenarios work we did with DFID in 2009.

Download Stephen’s presentation here.

The mobile phone business seems to be at a crossroads – consider the fact that the keynote speaker is not from a mobile operator but from a little company based in California called Google. This year’s Congress, following industry trends, has a special spotlight on the impact of smart phones and apps. Just yesterday, we read big news about India’s Bharti Airtel aiming to acquire all of Zain’s operations in Africa.

As for mobile banking for the unbanked – what’s the outlook? We keep pointing to M-PESA, the Safaricom service in Kenya that has reached 8.5 million people in just three years. But that’s basically payments and transfers. Research shows that poor people want and use a range of financial products – just like us. They want safe storage for their funds, they need microcredit, even insurance.

CGAP research and that of our partners shows that companies that offer products that keep the customer’s needs in focus will prosper.  In  Kenya, we know that more than 2 million people are paying to use M-PESA as a savings mechanism, and 1 in 10 Filipino mobile money users say they save through their mobile wallets as well. This strongly suggests a market for more specialized products than a “one size fits all” payment platform.”

Today, during “Mobile Money Monday,” Stephen’s talk points out that mobile banking has a good chance of taking off in any market where people have to rely on cash to move money or pay for things. Carrying cash can be dangerous and expensive. Every country is unique, but the success factors for growth include a younger demographic, more internet-enabled phones, avoiding or reducing risks around fraud and cash loss, and governments that foster financial inclusion.

Next: new research on the economic drivers for agent banking – presented by Mark Pickens at the GSMA’s Mobile Money for the Unbanked Working Group.

-Jim Rosenberg