Comments on: The Hype Cycle and Mobile Banking, 2009

By: Mark Raskino

Mark Raskino — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 08:47:28 +0000

I think the Hype Cycle is very relevant to this domain – but it needs to be applied with care. For example Rasmussen has a slide title which says: ‘Three key areas to be addressed to avoid the peak of inflated expectations’. However, the Hype Cycle peak of inflated expectations is never really ‘avoidable’ – it cannot be managed away because no actor or agency has sufficient social control over market excitement. The issues on the slide are more closely related to forecasting what must be navigated to get through the trough of disillusionment.
Another commenter mentions microfinance as a whole. That is certainly past the peak – and what a peak. 2005 UN year of microcredit plus Prahalad’s fBOP book, 2006 Yunus Nobel peace prize .. this looks like very high expectations indeed. In that area, a good example of the inevitable early disappointment driving down towards the trough was an article by Beck and Ogden, in HBR, Sep 2007 – titled ‘beware of bad microcredit’.

By: Carnival of Carnivals Aug. 31, 2009 « Crossing the Streams

Carnival of Carnivals Aug. 31, 2009 « Crossing the Streams — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 01:38:54 +0000

[...] I’ve seen that curve recently in CGAP’s article on the hype cycle in mobile banking, and I keep hearing that microfinance in general is moving through its Trough of Disillusionment [...]

By: Cumbre MMT en Barcelona « Telefonía Móvil y Acceso a Servicios Financieros en América Latina y Caribe

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:42:27 +0000

[...] es notablemente menor que en inglés, donde podemos encontrar algunas reflexiones como la de Jim Rosenberg, de CGAP, que plantea la cuestión sobre el punto de maduración en el que se encuentran las transferencias [...]