The global economy is sliding. The OECD predicts 2009 will be the worst year for the world economy since 1974. The mobile industry is already feeling the effects. Operator revenues grew by 5% in 2008, down nearly half from 2009, and are expected to soften further to 4.5% in 2009, according to Wireless Intelligence. And this is on top of the continual slide in ARPU (average revenue per user) which emerging market operators have seen for several years, as they pick up customers who are now disproportionately lower income.

What does mean for mobile financial services? It probably gives a boost to two opposing trends. As margins get squeezed in 2009, senior management might be less willing to take on any new, unproven projects. Instead, they’ll concentrate on keeping the core business of voice in the black.

But others will think it’s high time to boost non-voice spend from customers. It could make the difference between surviving and flourishing one or even several years of rocky returns coming up in 2009 and beyond. We think mobile financial services is still a good bet for many operators.”

In forthcoming research, CGAP and GSMA estimate that mobile payments and banking will add at least USD 0.6 in direct revenues per customer. That’s quite nice if you’re looking at revenues of USD 3 and 4 per customer. It’s been a long time since SMS, the last value added service to boost revenues in a big way. Texting was just an additive communication option on top of voice. Mobile financial services could tap a completely new pool of unserved demand among low-ARPU customers who are overwhelmingly unbanked.

The question is whether managers think they can access the right advice to successfully design, launch and grow a mobile money play in their market. That’s precisely the kind of advice CGAP and GSMA aim to offer. GSMA’s existing Mobile Money Transfer (MMT) program and new Mobile Money for the Unbanked (MMU) initiative are focused squarely on helping operators see the opportunity and exploit it. CGAP’s Technology Program continues to build on five years in the space, advising more than a dozen operators and banks, and publishing findings on the early lessons from branchless banking, understanding the unbanked customer, building viable agent networks, how small banks can approach mobile banking, and regulation in this new space.